SPECIAL: Asset management
Trend following and the headwinds of rising yields
The decline in bond yields over the past decades has supported profitability and diversification value of trend followers. Returns have been boosted by a...
Cash hoarding and market dynamics
Institutional asset managers can aggravate market swings due to the pro-cyclicality of redemptions, internal leverage and cash positions. A new empirical analysis shows that...
Fake alpha
Statistical alpha can be divided into fake alpha, which is a premium for non-directional systematic risk, and true alpha, which reflects the quality of the...
SYSTEMIC RISK
How central banks can take nominal rates deeply negative
The popular view that nominal interest rates have a natural zero lower bound has become...
Bayesian Risk Forecasting
Portfolio risk forecasting is subject to great parameter uncertainty, particularly for longer forward horizons. This...
The duration extraction effect
Under non-conventional monetary policy central banks influence financial markets through the “portfolio rebalancing channel”. The...
Tiered reserve systems
Negative monetary policy rates can undermine financial transmission, because they encourage cash hoarding and reduce...
Signaling systemic risk
Systemic financial crises arise when vulnerable financial systems meet adverse shocks. A systemic risk indicator...
SYSTEMATIC VALUE
U.S. Treasuries: decomposing the yield curve and predicting returns
A new paper proposes to decompose the U.S. government bond yield curve by applying a...
Systematic trading strategies: fooled by live records
Allocators to systematic strategies usually trust live records far more than backtests. Given the moral...
The implicit subsidies behind simple trading rules
Implicit subsidies are premia paid by large financial markets participants for reasons other than risk-return...
Implicit subsidies paid in financial markets: updated primer
Implicit subsidies in financial markets are premia paid through transactions that have motives other than...
Survival in the trading factor zoo
The algorithmic strategy business likes quoting academic research to support specific trading factors, particularly in...
POPULAR POSTS
The four components of long-term bond yields
A BOJ paper proposes an affine terms structure model for bond yields under consideration of the zero lower bound. It estimates the contribution of...
Leverage in asset management
Asset managers can use leverage to enhance returns. Outside hedge funds, such leverage is modest as share of assets under management. However, considering the huge...
Basic theory of momentum strategies
Systematic momentum trading is a major alternative risk premium strategy across asset classes. Time series momentum motivates trend following; cross section momentum gives rise...
VIX term structure as a trading signal
The VIX futures curve reflects expectations of future implied volatility of S&P500 index options. The slope of the curve is indicative of expected volatility...
Understanding market beta in FX
The beta of an investment measures its sensitivity to “market returns”. Unlike in equity, in FX the relevant benchmark for a beta cannot be a...
Lessons from long-term global equity performance
A truly global and long-term (116 years) data set for both successful and failed financial markets shows that equity has delivered positive long-term performance...