The project

Systemic Risk and Systematic Value is dedicated to socially responsible macro trading strategies. Macro trading strategies are defined as alternative investment management styles predicated on macroeconomic and public policy events or trends. If the right principles and ethics are applied, social and economic benefits arise from an improved information value of market prices, increased efficiency of global capital allocation and reduced risk of financial markets crises.

SPECIAL: Commodities

Commodity pricing

A new paper combines two key aspects of commodity pricing: a rational pricing model based on the present value of future convenience yields...

The latent factors behind commodity price indices

A 35-year empirical study suggests that about one third of the monthly changes in a broad commodity price index can be attributed to a...

Volatility risk premia in the commodity space

Volatility risk premia – differences between options-implied and actual volatility – are valid predictors for risky asset returns. High premia typically indicate high surcharges...

SYSTEMIC RISK

Predicting equity volatility with return dispersion

Equity return dispersion is measured as the standard deviation of returns across different stocks or...

Low rates troubles for insurances and pension funds

A CGFS report highlights the pressure of a ‘low for long’ interest rate environment on...

Update on the great public debt issue

The latest IMF fiscal monitor is a stark reminder of the public finance risks in...

How to prepare for the next systemic crisis

Systemic crises are rare. But they are make-or-break events for long-term performance and social relevance...

Modern financial system leverage

Leverage in modern financial systems arises from bank balance sheets and off-balance sheet transactions that...

SYSTEMATIC VALUE

Predicting equity volatility with return dispersion

Equity return dispersion is measured as the standard deviation of returns across different stocks or...

Earnings yields, equity carry and risk premia

Forward earnings yields and equity carry are plausible indicators of risk premia embedded in equity...

Beta herding

Beta herding means convergence of market betas of individual stocks that arises from investors’ biased...

The scarcity of Japanese government bonds

The Bank of Japan has by now bought up more than 44% of all outstanding...

Equity index futures returns: lessons of 2000-2018

The average annualized return of local-currency index futures for 25 international markets has been 6%...

POPULAR POSTS

The four components of long-term bond yields

A BOJ paper proposes an affine terms structure model for bond yields under consideration of the zero lower bound. It estimates the contribution of...

Leverage in asset management

Asset managers can use leverage to enhance returns. Outside hedge funds, such leverage is modest as share of assets under management. However, considering the huge...

Understanding market beta in FX

The beta of an investment measures its sensitivity to “market returns”. Unlike in equity, in FX the relevant benchmark for a beta cannot be a...

Why the covered interest parity is breaking down

Deviations in the covered interest parity have become a regular phenomenon even in developed markets. Persistent gaps between on-shore and FX-implied interest rate differentials (“cross-currency...

Lessons from long-term global equity performance

A truly global and long-term (116 years) data set for both successful and failed financial markets shows that equity has delivered positive long-term performance...

Trend following as tail risk hedge

Typical returns of a trend following strategy carry features of a “long vol” position and have positive convexity. Typical returns of long only strategies,...