SPECIAL: Commodities
Commodity carry
Across assets, carry is defined as return for unchanged prices and is calculated based on the difference between spot and futures prices (view post...
Seasonal effects in commodity futures curves
Seasonal fluctuations are evident for many commodity prices. However, their exact size can be quite uncertain. Hence, seasons affect commodity futures curves in two...
Commodity pricing
A new paper combines two key aspects of commodity pricing: a rational pricing model based on the present value of future convenience yields...
The latent factors behind commodity price indices
A 35-year empirical study suggests that about one third of the monthly changes in a broad commodity price index can be attributed to a...
Paper proposes "machine-learning a risk-neutral measure for paths of spot and option prices under convex transaction costs and convex trading constraints. This approach can be used to implement a stochastic implied volatility model." https://t.co/cdgPxqjQLM https://t.co/pelRSDmE23
Presentation of yield curve modelling issues: "[1] explains how to calibrate curves to imply forward rates & discount factors...[2] outlines the interpolation, optimization and solving process...[3] gives an outline of the LIBOR reform to ARR benchmarks." https://t.co/mtwkuz61zR https://t.co/t0GRSXSPNt
"The first three principal components of yield changes, which correspond to changes in level, slope and curvature...have strong predictive power for bond risk premia, in contrast to the factors based on yield levels." https://t.co/o5tYvD8L39 https://t.co/Px2R4oSo0J
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asset management Asset Purchase Program banks bond returns bond yields bubbles capital regulation China collateral commodities credit returns default ECB economic data EM equity returns euro area crisis Fed financial crisis FX FX interventions FX returns government debt government deficits herding inflation information leverage liquidity market turmoil price factors regulation risk management shadow banking statistical methods term structure trend following variance risk premium volatility ZLB
SYSTEMIC RISK
Market dynamics: belief, risk, and ambiguity effects
To understand financial market dynamics, it is helpful to distinguish beliefs, attitudes towards risk, and...
Building a real-time market distress index
A new Fed paper explains how to construct a real-time distress index, using the case...
The financial stability interest rate
The financial stability interest rate is a threshold above which the real interest rate in...
Contagion and self-fulfilling dynamics
Contagion and self-fulfilling feedback loops are propagation mechanisms at the heart of systemic financial crises....
Macro uncertainty as predictor of market volatility
Market volatility measures the size of variations of asset returns. Macroeconomic uncertainty measures the size...
SYSTEMATIC VALUE
Statistical arbitrage risk premium
Any asset can use a portfolio of similar assets to hedge against its factor exposure....
Market dynamics: belief, risk, and ambiguity effects
To understand financial market dynamics, it is helpful to distinguish beliefs, attitudes towards risk, and...
Building a real-time market distress index
A new Fed paper explains how to construct a real-time distress index, using the case...
Understanding the disposition effect
Investors have a tendency to sell assets that have earned them positive returns and are...
Macro uncertainty as predictor of market volatility
Market volatility measures the size of variations of asset returns. Macroeconomic uncertainty measures the size...
POPULAR POSTS
The dangerous disregard for fat tails in quantitative finance
The statistical term ‘fat tails’ refers to probability distributions with relatively high probability of extreme outcomes. Fat tails also imply strong influence of extreme...
Understanding dollar cross-currency basis
Covered interest parity is an arbitrage condition that equalizes costs of direct USD funding and of synthetic USD funding through FX swaps. Deviations are...
VIX term structure as a trading signal
The VIX futures curve reflects expectations of future implied volatility of S&P500 index options. The slope of the curve is indicative of expected volatility...
Understanding the correlation of equity and bond returns
The correlation of equity and high grade sovereign bond returns is a powerful driver of portfolio construction and the term premia of interest rates....
Leverage in asset management
Asset managers can use leverage to enhance returns. Outside hedge funds, such leverage is modest as share of assets under management. However, considering the huge...
The importance of volatility of volatility
Options-implied volatility of U.S. equity prices is measured by the volatility index, VIX. Options-implied volatility of volatility is measured by the volatility-of-volatility index, VVIX....