The project

Systemic Risk and Systematic Value is dedicated to socially responsible macro trading strategies. Macro trading strategies are defined as alternative investment management styles predicated on macroeconomic and public policy events or trends. If the right principles and ethics are applied, social and economic benefits arise from an improved information value of market prices, increased efficiency of global capital allocation and reduced risk of financial markets crises.

SPECIAL: Asset management

Trend following and the headwinds of rising yields

The decline in bond yields over the past decades has supported profitability and diversification value of trend followers. Returns have been boosted by a...

Cash hoarding and market dynamics

Institutional asset managers can aggravate market swings due to the pro-cyclicality of redemptions, internal leverage and cash positions. A new empirical analysis shows that...

Fake alpha

Statistical alpha can be divided into fake alpha, which is a premium for non-directional systematic risk, and true alpha, which reflects the quality of the...

SYSTEMIC RISK

The duration extraction effect

Under non-conventional monetary policy central banks influence financial markets through the “portfolio rebalancing channel”. The...

Tiered reserve systems

Negative monetary policy rates can undermine financial transmission, because they encourage cash hoarding and reduce...

Signaling systemic risk

Systemic financial crises arise when vulnerable financial systems meet adverse shocks. A systemic risk indicator...

How to estimate risk in extreme market situations

Estimating portfolio risk in extreme situations means answering two questions: First, has the market entered...

Understanding China’s “financial policy”

In most developed countries macroeconomic management is the domain of separate fiscal and monetary policies....

SYSTEMATIC VALUE

Survival in the trading factor zoo

The algorithmic strategy business likes quoting academic research to support specific trading factors, particularly in...

The dollar as barometer for credit market risk

The external value of the USD has become a key factor of U.S. and global...

How salience theory explains the mispricing of risk

Salience theory suggests that decision makers exaggerate the probability of extreme events if they are...

Understanding dollar cross-currency basis

Covered interest parity is an arbitrage condition that equalizes costs of direct USD funding and...

Why herding is the death of momentum

Momentum trading, buying winning assets and selling losing assets, is a most popular trading strategy....

POPULAR POSTS

The four components of long-term bond yields

A BOJ paper proposes an affine terms structure model for bond yields under consideration of the zero lower bound. It estimates the contribution of...

Leverage in asset management

Asset managers can use leverage to enhance returns. Outside hedge funds, such leverage is modest as share of assets under management. However, considering the huge...

Basic theory of momentum strategies

Systematic momentum trading is a major alternative risk premium strategy across asset classes. Time series momentum motivates trend following; cross section momentum gives rise...

VIX term structure as a trading signal

The VIX futures curve reflects expectations of future implied volatility of S&P500 index options. The slope of the curve is indicative of expected volatility...

Understanding market beta in FX

The beta of an investment measures its sensitivity to “market returns”. Unlike in equity, in FX the relevant benchmark for a beta cannot be a...

Lessons from long-term global equity performance

A truly global and long-term (116 years) data set for both successful and failed financial markets shows that equity has delivered positive long-term performance...