How to estimate risk in extreme market situations

Estimating portfolio risk in extreme situations means answering two questions: First, has the market entered an extreme state? Second, how are returns likely to...

The dollar as barometer for credit market risk

The external value of the USD has become a key factor of U.S. and global credit conditions. This reflects the surge in global USD-denominated...

How salience theory explains the mispricing of risk

Salience theory suggests that decision makers exaggerate the probability of extreme events if they are aware of their possibility. This gives rise to subjective...

Understanding China’s “financial policy”

In most developed countries macroeconomic management is the domain of separate fiscal and monetary policies. In China, the focus is on “financial policy”, a...

Algorithmic strategies: managing the overfitting bias

The business of algorithmic trading strategies creates incentives for model overfitting and backtest embellishment: researchers must pass Sharpe ratio thresholds for their strategies to...

Understanding dollar cross-currency basis

Covered interest parity is an arbitrage condition that equalizes costs of direct USD funding and of synthetic USD funding through FX swaps. Deviations are...

Why herding is the death of momentum

Momentum trading, buying winning assets and selling losing assets, is a most popular trading strategy. It relies on sluggish market adjustment, allowing the trader...

ECB policy framework in six basic points

The European Central Bank is one of the most powerful institutions in the world and is running a particularly complex policy framework. For macro...

Drawdown control

Containment of drawdowns and optimization of performance ratios for multi-asset portfolios is critical for trading strategies. Alas, short data series or structural changes often...

Liquidity yields and FX

Liquidity yields are convenience yields of financial securities that typically arise from high liquidity, suitability as collateral or preferred regulatory status. New research argues...

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How to estimate risk in extreme market situations

Estimating portfolio risk in extreme situations means answering two questions: First, has the market entered an extreme state? Second, how are returns likely to...

The dollar as barometer for credit market risk

The external value of the USD has become a key factor of U.S. and global credit conditions. This reflects the surge in global USD-denominated...

How salience theory explains the mispricing of risk

Salience theory suggests that decision makers exaggerate the probability of extreme events if they are aware of their possibility. This gives rise to subjective...

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