A paper by Bruno and Shin illustrates how global banks drive lending booms in local currency markets. Most importantly, they explain how currency strength fuels rather than curbs financial expansion in small and emerging economies, leading to escalating dynamics. Conversely, dollar strength can trigger a tightening spiral. Empirical evidence seems to support the point.
The asymmetry of government bond returns
Developed market government bonds are viewed as “safe havens”, but in reality they have been prone to sudden outsized price declines, similar to FX carry trades, even during the past 20 years of modest inflation. Drawdowns are worse in poor liquidity. This empirical finding is not new but more relevant as bond yields have been compressed and institutional duration exposure has surged relative to banks’ market making capacity.
Combining fundamentals- and momentum-based equity strategies
A University of York paper suggests that equity strategies based on fundamentals and strategies based on momentum are complementary. Thus, relative momentum seems to be a useful overlay for earnings growth-oriented portfolios (probably detecting when high growth companies hit a snag). And trend following has historically reduced volatility and drawdowns of both value and growth strategies.
The impact of non-conventional monetary policy on banks
Non-conventional monetary policy seems to benefit banks’ balance sheets. After all, it offers cheap refinancing and credit market support. However, an empirical analysis by Lambert and Ueda casts doubt on that belief. Market measures of bank credit risk have mostly deteriorated in episodes of policy stimulus. Easy monetary policy has been encouraging risk-weighted asset accumulation and discouraging balance sheet repair.
The Federal Reserve’s increased influence on financial markets
A new empirical study suggests that the Federal Reserve has exerted a stronger influence on fixed income, commodity, and currency markets since it started using non-conventional monetary policy. This is not because monetary policy shocks have been larger, but because their transmission has become more powerful and pervasive.
The basic mechanics of shadow banking
Shadow banking creates liquidity outside the regulated banking system. Unlike traditional money, shadow money is constrained by the value of assets that serve as collateral. Therefore, shadow banking is vulnerable to market price declines. As shown in a new paper by Moreira and Savov, pro-cyclicality is compounded by collateral values falling more than asset prices when uncertainty is rising. This makes modern financial systems prone to collateral runs and liquidity crises.
Japan’s war against deflation: progress and risks
More than a year after its launch, the impact of “quantitative and qualitative easing” seems pervasive. The Bank of Japan asserts that the output gap has closed, that inflation expectations have increased, and that the conquest of deflation would be in sight. The policy board has maintained its commitment to the 2% inflation target through forward guidance and large-scale JGB purchases. However, without successful fiscal consolidation and supply side reforms this policy poses new serious risks.
A brief review of China’s vulnerabilities
The IMF’s latest staff report on China serves as a reminder of key vulnerabilities. With repressed real interest rates corporate leverage remains high and particularly so in state-owned enterprises. Shadow banking has exceeded 50% of GDP and is still growing. Economic growth and credit quality are exposed to an unbalanced real estate sector. And the augmented fiscal deficit is already close to 7.5% of GDP, due mainly to local governments’ net borrowing through financing vehicles.
A lecture in euro area money markets
Paul Mercier, principal adviser at the ECB, has summarized the basics and recent history of euro area money markets. His tale emphasizes what investors often miss. First, the ECB balance sheet and excess liquidity are poor measures of lending conditions. Second, the great financial crisis has generated a structural rise in banks’ borrowing from the Eurosystem, over and above their liquidity needs. Third, full allotment policies in conjunction with (sub-) zero deposit rates have led to large and potentially volatile excess reserve holdings.
Origins of financial market trends
A working paper explores sources of market price trends. It suggests that small trend changes in perceptions about “fundamentals” can set in motion a persistent adjustment in transacted prices. And even without any changes to “fundamentals” or “technicals” trends are plausible.
