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Consequences of euro area break-up fears

A very interesting Banca d’Italia study shows how euro area break-up expectations are becoming self-reinforcing, i.e. precipitating a divergence of sovereign yields and financial conditions beyond...

Chinese wealth management products

Chinese wealth management Products (WMPs) are a form of asset backed shadow banking deposit, paying above the rates of regulated banks. The WMPs have...

The basics of financial repression

A subtle type of sovereign debt restructuring is “financial repression.” Financial repression denotes a compound of measures to channel cheap funding to governments, accompanied...

A review of euro area rescue funds

The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and its permanent replacement, the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) haven proved less effective than the ECB in quelling...

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Estimating the positioning of trend followers

There is a simple method of approximating trend follower positioning in real-time and without lag. It is based on normalized returns in liquid futures...

Forecasting energy markets with macro data

Recent academic papers illustrate how macroeconomic data support predictions of energy market flows and prices. Valid macro indicators include shipping costs, industrial production measures,...

Fundamental trend following

Fundamental trend following uses moving averages of past fundamental data, such as valuation metrics or economic indicators, to predict future fundamentals, analogously to the...

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