A DB paper suggests that the rising median age of the world’s population will increase savings ratios. The trend is reinforced by macro policies aimed at generating external surpluses or at least restraining deficits. The onus of absorbing the resulting savings glut may fall on the United States, which issues the world’s anchor currency. Irrespective of whether it accepts that role, cost of capital for the world as a whole is likely to be compressed by the savings glut.
Side effects of capital regulation reform
Capital regulation reform could lead to excessive bank asset encumbrance and distortions in funding markets, as unsecured institutional creditors face an increased risk of statutory bail-in. Excessive asset encumbrance could undermine a bank’s resolution in distress. Rising costs of unsecured bank debt could lower its share below what is required for loss absorption.
The U.S. Fed’s new tools to control short-term rates
A Federal Reserve paper describes and evaluates monetary policy tools for managing short-term market rates in an environment of large-scale excess reserve money in the financial system. These tools are interest on excess reserves (IOER), reverse repurchase agreements (RRPs) with a wide range of market participants, and the term deposit facility (TDF).
The case for monitoring shadow banking risks
Another Federal Reserve paper on shadow banking emphasizes its systemic risks. In particular, shadow banking seems to have a tendency to accumulate tail risks, relies on fragile funding conditions (without official backstop), and is subject to pronounced pro-cyclicality. Shadow banking activity is tied to core regulated institutions and, hence, is a valid concern for broad financial stability.
The systemic risk of China’s local government debt
A Nomura research report suggests that China’s local government financing vehicles now pose a major risk for the economy. Their debt stock has surged close to 40% of GDP over the past three years. Profitability is poor, liquidity risks are high, and solvency hinges on government support.
Risk premia strategies
Risk premia strategies can be defined as diversifiable investment styles with fundamental value and positive historic returns. Their main types are (i) absolute value and carry, (ii) momentum, and (iii) relative value. A Societe Generale research report argues that value generation of these styles may be more reliable than that of asset classes and more suitable for combination into diversified portfolios.
The rise of counter-cyclical fiscal policy
A new IMF paper illustrates the changed realities of public macro policy. In times of negative shocks at the zero bound for interest rates, fiscal policy is best suited for stabilizing economies. Monetary policy takes on a support role, securing funding conditions and financial stability. As a side effect of this policy mix, sovereign risk has emerged as a major concern in advanced economies. This suggests that in times of recovery it will also be fiscal rather than monetary tightening that dampens economic growth and overheating.
Target2 and the euro area crisis
Target2 is the real-time gross settlement system of the Eurosystem. It allows central banks to redress reserve losses that result from balance of payment deficits. A working paper of the University of Siena illustrates how Target2 prevented the euro area sovereign crisis from escalating into large-scale defaults and devaluations. Limitations to Target2 could downgrade the monetary union to a fixed exchange rate regime, if international flows become large enough.
Consequences of the OTC derivatives reform
The OTC derivatives reform is nearing completion. It is designed to contain derivatives-related credit and contagion risk through standardization, multilateral netting, and adequate collateralization. However, new risks may arise, due to the enhanced importance of a small group of global banks, institutional weaknesses of central counterparties, limited collateral availability, and cyclicality of margins,
When long-term institutional investors turn pro-cyclical
A new IMF paper suggests that so-called “long-term institutional investors” have largely turned pro-cyclical in recent crises. This feature may be structural and reflect (a) underestimation of liquidity needs in boom times, (b) failure of traditional risk management systems to appreciate tail risk, (c) asset managers’ short-term performance targets, (d) links between short-term performance disclosures and asset outflows, and (e) regulations and conventions that encourage herding.
