The threat from China’s shadow finance
In past years China witnessed a boom in shadow finance, particularly in form of entrusted loans. Banks apparently used shadow credit products in large...
The China credit risk
The rapid rise of China’s internal debt stock is a global concern. Oxford Economics research shows that non-financial sector debt has soared to 250%...
China housing and global base metal prices
China consumes half of the world’s base metal supply. Its housing market is the most metal-intensive large sector. A new quantitative study shows that...
China’s “double impact” on commodity prices
China consumes about one third of the world's commodities. However, its influence on commodity prices goes beyond that. Chinese institutions are also major users...
The root of China’s financial distortions
China’s financial distortions are rooted in deposit rate controls and implicit loan guarantees. Low remuneration on bank deposits in conjunction with capital controls have...
How current accounts mislead FX markets
A common fallacy is that current account deficits measure dependence on external financing. In reality, external balances and cross border financing are only vaguely...
China fears: updated basic background
Uncertainty over China’s exchange rate regime has accentuated local and global risks. Within China, fears of currency volatility and depreciation have reinforced capital outflows and...
China’s housing boom: numbers and risks
The surge in housing prices in metropolitan China is a systemic concern. A new paper estimates that price growth has been 8-13% per year...
The evolution of China’s monetary policy
China’s economy has long relied on compressed interest rates in conjunction with strict capital controls and a tightly managed exchange rate. A new ADBI...
The global debt problem(s)
A new McKinsey report estimates that total debt of households, corporates, and governments has expanded 40% since 2007, reaching a total of 286% of...
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