Estimating China’s augmented fiscal debt and deficit

The IMF, like other institutions, estimates that China’s fiscal position is much weaker than suggested by headline statistics. A new paper sees the augmented...

China’s internal debt overload: a refresher

According to the latest IMF China report credit to non-financial institutions has soared to over 230% of GDP, an increase of 60%-points and a...

How current accounts mislead FX markets

A common fallacy is that current account deficits measure dependence on external financing. In reality, external balances and cross border financing are only vaguely...

China’s “double impact” on commodity prices

China consumes about one third of the world's commodities. However, its influence on commodity prices goes beyond that. Chinese institutions are also major users...

China housing and global base metal prices

China consumes half of the world’s base metal supply. Its housing market is the most metal-intensive large sector. A new quantitative study shows that...

The shadow of China’s banks

Unlike in the U.S., shadow banking in China is dominated by commercial banks, not securities markets. Regulated banks operate most shadow banking activity, take...

China’s housing boom: numbers and risks

The surge in housing prices in metropolitan China is a systemic concern. A new paper estimates that price growth has been 8-13% per year...

The threat from China’s shadow finance

In past years China witnessed a boom in shadow finance, particularly in form of entrusted loans. Banks apparently used shadow credit products in large...

China’s highly leveraged state-owned corporates

Morgan Stanley’s Viktor Hjort, Nishant Sood, and Gaurav Singhal show that financial leverage of China’s corporates has reached record highs, particularly for state-owned enterprises...

Official flows and consequences for FX markets

A new IMF paper shows empirically that official currency interventions affect external imbalances and, by implication, exchange rate misalignments. There is a short-term flow...

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