Estimating China’s augmented fiscal debt and deficit

The IMF, like other institutions, estimates that China’s fiscal position is much weaker than suggested by headline statistics. A new paper sees the augmented...

China’s “double impact” on commodity prices

China consumes about one third of the world's commodities. However, its influence on commodity prices goes beyond that. Chinese institutions are also major users...

Understanding China’s “financial policy”

In most developed countries macroeconomic management is the domain of separate fiscal and monetary policies. In China, the focus is on “financial policy”, a...

China housing and global base metal prices

China consumes half of the world’s base metal supply. Its housing market is the most metal-intensive large sector. A new quantitative study shows that...

How current accounts mislead FX markets

A common fallacy is that current account deficits measure dependence on external financing. In reality, external balances and cross border financing are only vaguely...

China’s housing boom: numbers and risks

The surge in housing prices in metropolitan China is a systemic concern. A new paper estimates that price growth has been 8-13% per year...

The shadow of China’s banks

Unlike in the U.S., shadow banking in China is dominated by commercial banks, not securities markets. Regulated banks operate most shadow banking activity, take...

The threat from China’s shadow finance

In past years China witnessed a boom in shadow finance, particularly in form of entrusted loans. Banks apparently used shadow credit products in large...

China’s highly leveraged state-owned corporates

Morgan Stanley’s Viktor Hjort, Nishant Sood, and Gaurav Singhal show that financial leverage of China’s corporates has reached record highs, particularly for state-owned enterprises...

The root of China’s financial distortions

China’s financial distortions are rooted in deposit rate controls and implicit loan guarantees. Low remuneration on bank deposits in conjunction with capital controls have...

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