A brief review of China’s vulnerabilities

The IMF’s latest staff report on China serves as a reminder of key vulnerabilities. With repressed real interest rates corporate leverage remains high and...

China’s housing boom: numbers and risks

The surge in housing prices in metropolitan China is a systemic concern. A new paper estimates that price growth has been 8-13% per year...

The China credit risk

The rapid rise of China’s internal debt stock is a global concern. Oxford Economics research shows that non-financial sector debt has soared to 250%...

The China property market risk

Nomura research has summarized evidence of oversupply of residential property in China. Urban floor space per capita is now estimated to be higher than...

How easy G3 monetary policy spills over into East Asia

A recent BIS paper illustrates the consequences of highly accommodative monetary policy in the G3 for East Asia. These include lower policy rates than...

Nomura research on rising China crisis risk

According to Nomura's Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen, "China is displaying the same three symptoms that Japan, the US and parts of Europe all...

How current accounts mislead FX markets

A common fallacy is that current account deficits measure dependence on external financing. In reality, external balances and cross border financing are only vaguely...

China’s internal debt overload: a refresher

According to the latest IMF China report credit to non-financial institutions has soared to over 230% of GDP, an increase of 60%-points and a...

Estimating China’s augmented fiscal debt and deficit

The IMF, like other institutions, estimates that China’s fiscal position is much weaker than suggested by headline statistics. A new paper sees the augmented...

Official flows and consequences for FX markets

A new IMF paper shows empirically that official currency interventions affect external imbalances and, by implication, exchange rate misalignments. There is a short-term flow...

RECENT ARTICLES

The power of R for trading (part 2)

The R environment makes statistical estimation and learning accessible to portfolio management beyond the traditional quant space. Overcoming technicalities and jargon, managers can operate...

The power of R for trading (part 1)

R is an object-oriented programming language and work environment for statistical analysis. It is not just for programmers, but for everyone conducting data analysis,...

Retail investor beliefs

Survey evidence suggests that retail investors adjust positions rather sluggishly to changing beliefs and the beliefs themselves contradict classic rationality. Sluggishness arises from two...

POPULAR ARTICLES