How convenience yields have compressed real interest rates
Real interest rates on ‘safe’ assets such as high-quality government bonds had been stationary around 2% for more than a century until the 1980s....
How regulatory reform shapes the financial cycle
Ambitious regulatory reform has changed the dynamics of the global financial system. Capital ratios of banks have increased significantly, reining in bank credit. Counter-cyclical...
Low rates troubles for insurances and pension funds
A CGFS report highlights the pressure of a ‘low for long’ interest rate environment on life insurance companies and defined-benefit pension funds. This pressure...
Understanding collateral runs
In normal financial runs lenders want their money back. In collateral runs borrowers want their collateral back. In today’s highly collateralized financial system the...
Modern financial system leverage
Leverage in modern financial systems arises from bank balance sheets and off-balance sheet transactions that involve banks and other financial institution. Non-bank funding of...
The consequences of increased financial collateralization
There has been a strong upward trend in collateralization since the great financial crisis. Suitable collateral, such as government bonds, is essential for financial...
How bank regulatory reform has changed macro trading
The great regulatory reform in global banking has altered the backdrop for macro trading. First, greater complexity and policymaker discretion means that investment managers...
Cash hoarding and market dynamics
Institutional asset managers can aggravate market swings due to the pro-cyclicality of redemptions, internal leverage and cash positions. A new empirical analysis shows that...
Volcker Rule and liquidity risk
The Volcker Rule has banned proprietary trading of banks with access to official backstops. Also, market making has become more onerous as restrictions and...
The macroeconomic impact of Basel III
The regulatory capital reform for banks increases capital costs and credit spreads charged on clients. However, it also clearly reduces the tail risk of...
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Risk management shocks and price distortions
Risk management relies on statistical metrics that converge on common standards. These metrics can change drastically alongside market conditions. A risk management shock is...
The predictive superiority of ensemble methods for CDS spreads
Through 'R' and 'Python' one can apply a wide range of methods for predicting financial market variables. Key concepts include penalized regression, such as...
Unproductive debt
Credit and related interest income have historically been viewed as service and related payment for lending productively. However, in a highly collateralized and risk-averse...