How regulatory reform shapes the financial cycle
Ambitious regulatory reform has changed the dynamics of the global financial system. Capital ratios of banks have increased significantly, reining in bank credit. Counter-cyclical...
Low rates troubles for insurances and pension funds
A CGFS report highlights the pressure of a ‘low for long’ interest rate environment on life insurance companies and defined-benefit pension funds. This pressure...
Understanding collateral runs
In normal financial runs lenders want their money back. In collateral runs borrowers want their collateral back. In today’s highly collateralized financial system the...
Modern financial system leverage
Leverage in modern financial systems arises from bank balance sheets and off-balance sheet transactions that involve banks and other financial institution. Non-bank funding of...
The consequences of increased financial collateralization
There has been a strong upward trend in collateralization since the great financial crisis. Suitable collateral, such as government bonds, is essential for financial...
How bank regulatory reform has changed macro trading
The great regulatory reform in global banking has altered the backdrop for macro trading. First, greater complexity and policymaker discretion means that investment managers...
Cash hoarding and market dynamics
Institutional asset managers can aggravate market swings due to the pro-cyclicality of redemptions, internal leverage and cash positions. A new empirical analysis shows that...
Volcker Rule and liquidity risk
The Volcker Rule has banned proprietary trading of banks with access to official backstops. Also, market making has become more onerous as restrictions and...
The macroeconomic impact of Basel III
The regulatory capital reform for banks increases capital costs and credit spreads charged on clients. However, it also clearly reduces the tail risk of...
The global debt overhang
A new IMF report illustrates that a large share of both advanced and emerging economies struggle with private debt overhangs. Excessive debt is a...
RECENT ARTICLES
How central banks can take nominal rates deeply negative
The popular view that nominal interest rates have a natural zero lower bound has become obsolete in modern financial systems. It may be more...
Systematic trading strategies: fooled by live records
Allocators to systematic strategies usually trust live records far more than backtests. Given the moral hazard issues of backtesting in the financial industry, this...
Bayesian Risk Forecasting
Portfolio risk forecasting is subject to great parameter uncertainty, particularly for longer forward horizons. This simply reflects that large drawdowns are observed only rarely,...