The dollar as barometer for credit market risk
The external value of the USD has become a key factor of U.S. and global credit conditions. This reflects the surge in global USD-denominated...
How convenience yields have compressed real interest rates
Real interest rates on ‘safe’ assets such as high-quality government bonds had been stationary around 2% for more than a century until the 1980s....
How regulatory reform shapes the financial cycle
Ambitious regulatory reform has changed the dynamics of the global financial system. Capital ratios of banks have increased significantly, reining in bank credit. Counter-cyclical...
Low rates troubles for insurances and pension funds
A CGFS report highlights the pressure of a ‘low for long’ interest rate environment on life insurance companies and defined-benefit pension funds. This pressure...
Understanding collateral runs
In normal financial runs lenders want their money back. In collateral runs borrowers want their collateral back. In today’s highly collateralized financial system the...
Modern financial system leverage
Leverage in modern financial systems arises from bank balance sheets and off-balance sheet transactions that involve banks and other financial institution. Non-bank funding of...
The consequences of increased financial collateralization
There has been a strong upward trend in collateralization since the great financial crisis. Suitable collateral, such as government bonds, is essential for financial...
How bank regulatory reform has changed macro trading
The great regulatory reform in global banking has altered the backdrop for macro trading. First, greater complexity and policymaker discretion means that investment managers...
Cash hoarding and market dynamics
Institutional asset managers can aggravate market swings due to the pro-cyclicality of redemptions, internal leverage and cash positions. A new empirical analysis shows that...
Volcker Rule and liquidity risk
The Volcker Rule has banned proprietary trading of banks with access to official backstops. Also, market making has become more onerous as restrictions and...
RECENT ARTICLES
Understanding the disposition effect
Investors have a tendency to sell assets that have earned them positive returns and are reluctant to let go of those that have brought...
Contagion and self-fulfilling dynamics
Contagion and self-fulfilling feedback loops are propagation mechanisms at the heart of systemic financial crises. Contagion refers to the deterioration of fundamentals through the...
Macro uncertainty as predictor of market volatility
Market volatility measures the size of variations of asset returns. Macroeconomic uncertainty measures the size of unpredictable disturbances in economic activity. Large moves in...