Fundamental Value

Seasonal fluctuations are evident for many commodity prices. However, their exact size can be quite uncertain. Hence, seasons affect commodity futures curves in two...

The fixed income term premium is the difference between the yield of a longer-maturity bond and the average expected risk-free short-term rate for that...

Empirical research suggests that it is easier to predict relative returns within an asset class than to predict absolute returns. Also, out-of-sample value generation...

Critical transitions in financial markets are shifts in prices and operational structure to a new equilibrium after reaching a tipping point. “Complexity theory” helps...

FX forward returns for 29 floating and convertible currencies since 1999 provide important empirical lessons. First, the long-term performance of FX returns has been...

Experimental research has produced robust evidence for mispricing of assets relative to their fundamental values even with active trading and sufficient information. Academic studies...

Inflation risk premia in the U.S. and the euro area have disappeared or even turned negative since the great financial crisis, according to various...

Trade-weighted exchange rates help assessing the impact of past currency depreciation on economic growth through the external trade channel. Debt-weighted exchange rates help assessing...

Historically, securities that lose value as inflation increases have paid a sizable risk premium. However, there is evidence that inflation risk premia have vanished...

New empirical research provides guidance as to how to use real exchange rates for currency strategies. First, real exchange rates can serve as a...