The predictability of market-wide earnings revisions

Forward earnings yields are a key metric for the valuation of an equity market. Helpfully, I/B/E/S and DataStream publish forward earnings forecasts of analysts...

Earnings yields, equity carry and risk premia

Forward earnings yields and equity carry are plausible indicators of risk premia embedded in equity index futures prices. Data for a panel of 25...

Seasonal effects in commodity futures curves

Seasonal fluctuations are evident for many commodity prices. However, their exact size can be quite uncertain. Hence, seasons affect commodity futures curves in two...

Term premia and macro factors

The fixed income term premium is the difference between the yield of a longer-maturity bond and the average expected risk-free short-term rate for that...

The predictability of relative asset returns

Empirical research suggests that it is easier to predict relative returns within an asset class than to predict absolute returns. Also, out-of-sample value generation...

Critical transitions in financial markets

Critical transitions in financial markets are shifts in prices and operational structure to a new equilibrium after reaching a tipping point. “Complexity theory” helps...

FX forward returns: basic empirical lessons

FX forward returns for 29 floating and convertible currencies since 1999 provide important empirical lessons. First, the long-term performance of FX returns has been...

Why financial markets misprice fundamental value

Experimental research has produced robust evidence for mispricing of assets relative to their fundamental values even with active trading and sufficient information. Academic studies...

Understanding negative inflation risk premia

Inflation risk premia in the U.S. and the euro area have disappeared or even turned negative since the great financial crisis, according to various...

Debt-weighted exchange rates

Trade-weighted exchange rates help assessing the impact of past currency depreciation on economic growth through the external trade channel. Debt-weighted exchange rates help assessing...

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The mighty “long-long” trade

One of the most successful investment strategies since the turn of the century has been the risk-parity “long-long” of combined equity, credit and duration...

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A risk spread is a premium for bearing economic risk of an investment, paid over and above the short-term real interest rate. Over the...

Bad and good beta in FX strategies

Bad beta means market exposure that is expensive to hedge. Good beta is market exposure that is cheap to hedge. Distinguishing between these is...

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