Fundamental value

FX forward returns for 29 floating and convertible currencies since 1999 provide important empirical lessons. First, the long-term performance of FX returns has been...

Experimental research has produced robust evidence for mispricing of assets relative to their fundamental values even with active trading and sufficient information. Academic studies...

Inflation risk premia in the U.S. and the euro area have disappeared or even turned negative since the great financial crisis, according to various...

Trade-weighted exchange rates help assessing the impact of past currency depreciation on economic growth through the external trade channel. Debt-weighted exchange rates help assessing...

Historically, securities that lose value as inflation increases have paid a sizable risk premium. However, there is evidence that inflation risk premia have vanished...

New empirical research provides guidance as to how to use real exchange rates for currency strategies. First, real exchange rates can serve as a...

A common fallacy is that current account deficits measure dependence on external financing. In reality, external balances and cross border financing are only vaguely...

Assessing the risk of equity market “crashes”, academic work has focused on price-earnings ratios and bond-stock earnings yield differentials. A recent paper by Lleo...

Simple regression is inadequate for predicting bond returns, as the character of rates markets changes fundamentally with economic conditions. In financial modelling terms this...

A Bundesbank paper proposes a new type of real exchange rate index. Rather than measuring the competitiveness of goods markets, this “real financial exchange...