Fundamental Value

When macroeconomic conditions change rational inattention and cognitive frictions plausibly prevent markets from adjusting expectations for futures interest rates immediately and fully. This is...

The predictive power score is a summary metric for predictive relations between data series. Like correlation, it is suitable for quick data exploration. Unlike...

An equilibrium model for U.S. Treasury yields explains how macroeconomic trends and related expectations for future short-term interest rates shape the yield curve. Long-term...