The q-factor model for equity returns
Investment-based capital asset pricing looks at equity returns from the angle of issuers, rather than investors. It is based on the cost of capital...
The price effects of order flow
Order flow means buyer- or seller-initiated transactions at electronic exchanges. Order flow consumes liquidity provided by market makers and drives a wedge between transacted...
Dealer capital ratios and FX carry returns
When financial market intermediaries warehouse net risk positions of other market participants the marginal value of their capital should affect the expected and actual...
The low-risk effect: evidence and reason
The low-risk effect refers to the empirical finding that within an asset classes higher-beta securities fail to outperform lower-beta securities. As a result, “betting...
The mighty “long-long” trade
One of the most successful investment strategies since the turn of the century has been the risk-parity “long-long” of combined equity, credit and duration...
Active fund risk premia in emerging markets
Security returns, adjusted for market risk, contain risk premia that compensate for the exposure to active fund risk. The active fund risk premium of...
The implicit subsidies behind simple trading rules
Implicit subsidies are premia paid by large financial markets participants for reasons other than risk-return optimization (view post here). Their estimation requires skill and...
Implicit subsidies paid in financial markets: updated primer
Implicit subsidies in financial markets are premia paid through transactions that have motives other than conventional risk-return optimization. They manifest as expected returns over...
How salience theory explains the mispricing of risk
Salience theory suggests that decision makers exaggerate the probability of extreme events if they are aware of their possibility. This gives rise to subjective...
Commodity carry
Across assets, carry is defined as return for unchanged prices and is calculated based on the difference between spot and futures prices (view post...
RECENT ARTICLES
Joint predictability of FX and bond returns
When macroeconomic conditions change rational inattention and cognitive frictions plausibly prevent markets from adjusting expectations for futures interest rates immediately and fully. This is...
The predictive power score
The predictive power score is a summary metric for predictive relations between data series. Like correlation, it is suitable for quick data exploration. Unlike...
Equilibrium theory of Treasury yields
An equilibrium model for U.S. Treasury yields explains how macroeconomic trends and related expectations for future short-term interest rates shape the yield curve. Long-term...