VIX term structure as a trading signal

The VIX futures curve reflects expectations of future implied volatility of S&P500 index options. The slope of the curve is indicative of expected volatility...

Lessons from long-term global equity performance

A truly global and long-term (116 years) data set for both successful and failed financial markets shows that equity has delivered positive long-term performance...

Why the covered interest parity is breaking down

Deviations in the covered interest parity have become a regular phenomenon even in developed markets. Persistent gaps between on-shore and FX-implied interest rate differentials (“cross-currency...

Using yield curve information for FX trading

FX carry trading strategies only use short-term interest rates (and forward basis) as signal. Yet both theoretical and empirical research suggests that the whole...

Fixed income carry as trading signal

Empirical evidence for 27 markets suggests that carry on interest rate swaps has been positively correlated with subsequent returns for the past two decades....

The term premium of interest rate swaps

A Commerzbank paper proposes a practical way to estimate term premia across interest rate swap markets. The method adjusts conventional yield curves for median...

Understanding and dissecting the variance risk premium

The variance risk premium is paid by risk-averse investors to hedge against variations in future realized volatility. Empirical evidence and intuition suggest that equity...

FX carry strategies (part 1)

FX forward-implied carry is a valid basis for investment strategies because it is related to policy subsidies and risk premia. However, it also contains...

Why and when central banks intervene in FX markets

A new BIS paper summarizes motives and impact of FX interventions. Most importantly it looks at the conditions under which such interventions are effective...

Understanding bid-offer spreads in OTC markets

Bid-offer spreads are traditionally explained by inventory costs, operating expenses and dealers’ risk of transacting with better-informed clients. In OTC (over-the-counter) markets, however, client...

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Drawdown control

Containment of drawdowns and optimization of performance ratios for multi-asset portfolios is critical for trading strategies. Alas, short data series or structural changes often...

Liquidity yields and FX

Liquidity yields are convenience yields of financial securities that typically arise from high liquidity, suitability as collateral or preferred regulatory status. New research argues...

The fundamental value trap

Fundamental value seems like a straightforward investment approach. One simply looks for assets that are “cheap” or “expensive” relative to their rationally expected risk-adjusted...

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