The latent factors behind commodity price indices

A 35-year empirical study suggests that about one third of the monthly changes in a broad commodity price index can be attributed to a...

Hedging FX trades against unwanted risk

When FX forward positions express views on country-specific developments one can shape the trade to its rationale by hedging against significant unrelated global influences....

Treasury yield curve and macro trends

There is a strong logical and empirical link between the U.S. Treasury yield curve and long-term economic trends, particularly expected inflation and the equilibrium...

The demographic compression of interest rates

Declining population growth and rising dependency ratios in the developed world have been one key factor behind the decline in nominal and real interest...

What traders can learn from market price volatility

Equity and bond market volatility can be decomposed into persistent and transitory components by means of statistical methods. The distinction is relevant for macro...

Building international financial conditions indices

IMF staff has developed global financial conditions indices for 43 global economies. Conceptually, these indices extract the communal component of range of indicators for...

The global effects of a U.S. term premium shock

Empirical research suggests that shocks to U.S. treasury term premia have had a persistent subsequent impact on term premia in other developed and emerging fixed...

Watching U.S. financial conditions

The U.S. financial system wields dominant influence over the national and global economies. Moreover, securities and derivatives markets play a greater role relative to...

Nowcasting GDP growth

Financial markets have long struggled with tracking GDP growth trends in a timely and consistent fashion. However, over the past decade statistical methods for...

Measuring non-conventional monetary policy surprises

A new paper proposes a measure for monetary policy surprises that arise from asset purchases and forward guidance. The idea is to estimate the...

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The downside variance risk premium

The variance risk premium of an asset is the difference between options-implied and actual expected return variation. It can be viewed as a price...

The 1×1 of risk perception measures

There are two reasons why macro traders watch risk perceptions. First, sudden spikes often trigger subsequent flows and macroeconomic change. Second, implausibly high or...

Monetary policy stance in one indicator

New research proposes to condense policy rates and balance sheet actions into a single implied short-term interest rate. To this end the term premium...

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