Policy rates and equity volatility

Measures of monetary policy rate uncertainty significantly improve forecasting models for equity volatility and variance risk premia. Theoretically, there is a strong link between...

Monetary policy stance in one indicator

New research proposes to condense policy rates and balance sheet actions into a single implied short-term interest rate. To this end the term premium...

How to use financial conditions indices

There are two ways to use financial conditions indicators for macro trading. First, the tightening of aggregate financial conditions helps forecasting macroeconomic dynamics and...

The latent factors behind commodity price indices

A 35-year empirical study suggests that about one third of the monthly changes in a broad commodity price index can be attributed to a...

Hedging FX trades against unwanted risk

When FX forward positions express views on country-specific developments one can shape the trade to its rationale by hedging against significant unrelated global influences....

Treasury yield curve and macro trends

There is a strong logical and empirical link between the U.S. Treasury yield curve and long-term economic trends, particularly expected inflation and the equilibrium...

The demographic compression of interest rates

Declining population growth and rising dependency ratios in the developed world have been one key factor behind the decline in nominal and real interest...

What traders can learn from market price volatility

Equity and bond market volatility can be decomposed into persistent and transitory components by means of statistical methods. The distinction is relevant for macro...

Building international financial conditions indices

IMF staff has developed global financial conditions indices for 43 global economies. Conceptually, these indices extract the communal component of range of indicators for...

The global effects of a U.S. term premium shock

Empirical research suggests that shocks to U.S. treasury term premia have had a persistent subsequent impact on term premia in other developed and emerging fixed...

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Since the mid-1990s the dollar exchange rate has mostly anticipated the outcome of FOMC meetings: it appreciated in the days before a rate hike...

Endogenous market risk

Understanding endogenous market risk (“setback risk”) is critical for timing and risk management of strategic macro trades. Endogenous market risk here means a gap...

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