A simple rule for exchange rate trends

Over the past decades developed market exchange rates have displayed two important regularities. First, real exchange rates (nominal exchange rates adjusted for domestic price...

Overconfidence and inattention as asset return factors

Overconfidence in personal beliefs and inattention to new trends are widespread in financial markets. If specific behavioural biases become common across investors they constitute...

Policy rates and equity volatility

Measures of monetary policy rate uncertainty significantly improve forecasting models for equity volatility and variance risk premia. Theoretically, there is a strong link between...

Monetary policy stance in one indicator

New research proposes to condense policy rates and balance sheet actions into a single implied short-term interest rate. To this end the term premium...

How to use financial conditions indices

There are two ways to use financial conditions indicators for macro trading. First, the tightening of aggregate financial conditions helps forecasting macroeconomic dynamics and...

The latent factors behind commodity price indices

A 35-year empirical study suggests that about one third of the monthly changes in a broad commodity price index can be attributed to a...

Hedging FX trades against unwanted risk

When FX forward positions express views on country-specific developments one can shape the trade to its rationale by hedging against significant unrelated global influences....

Treasury yield curve and macro trends

There is a strong logical and empirical link between the U.S. Treasury yield curve and long-term economic trends, particularly expected inflation and the equilibrium...

The demographic compression of interest rates

Declining population growth and rising dependency ratios in the developed world have been one key factor behind the decline in nominal and real interest...

What traders can learn from market price volatility

Equity and bond market volatility can be decomposed into persistent and transitory components by means of statistical methods. The distinction is relevant for macro...

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