Policy rates and equity volatility

Measures of monetary policy rate uncertainty significantly improve forecasting models for equity volatility and variance risk premia. Theoretically, there is a strong link between...

Monetary policy stance in one indicator

New research proposes to condense policy rates and balance sheet actions into a single implied short-term interest rate. To this end the term premium...

The consequences of increased financial collateralization

There has been a strong upward trend in collateralization since the great financial crisis. Suitable collateral, such as government bonds, is essential for financial...

Critical transitions in financial markets

Critical transitions in financial markets are shifts in prices and operational structure to a new equilibrium after reaching a tipping point. “Complexity theory” helps...

The demographic compression of interest rates

Declining population growth and rising dependency ratios in the developed world have been one key factor behind the decline in nominal and real interest...

The global effects of a U.S. term premium shock

Empirical research suggests that shocks to U.S. treasury term premia have had a persistent subsequent impact on term premia in other developed and emerging fixed...

Watching U.S. financial conditions

The U.S. financial system wields dominant influence over the national and global economies. Moreover, securities and derivatives markets play a greater role relative to...

Measuring non-conventional monetary policy surprises

A new paper proposes a measure for monetary policy surprises that arise from asset purchases and forward guidance. The idea is to estimate the...

Inflation: risk without premium

Historically, securities that lose value as inflation increases have paid a sizable risk premium. However, there is evidence that inflation risk premia have vanished...

Term premia in the times of “lift-off”

Equilibrium models suggest that as long as the policy rate is firmly near zero, the term premium on longer-dated yields is compressed by a...

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Liquidity yields are convenience yields of financial securities that typically arise from high liquidity, suitability as collateral or preferred regulatory status. New research argues...

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Fundamental value seems like a straightforward investment approach. One simply looks for assets that are “cheap” or “expensive” relative to their rationally expected risk-adjusted...

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