Nowcasting with MIDAS regressions

Nowcasting macro-financial indicators requires combining low-frequency and high-frequency time series. Mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions explain a low-frequency variable based on high-frequency variables and...

Market-implied macro shocks

Combinations of equity returns and yield-curve changes can be used to classify market-implied underlying macro news. The methodology is structural vector autoregression. Theoretical ‘restrictions’...

Nowcasting for financial markets

Nowcasting is a modern approach to monitoring economic conditions in real-time. It makes financial market trading more efficient because economic dynamics drive corporate profits,...

Predicting volatility with heterogeneous autoregressive models

Heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility have become a popular standard in financial market research. They use high-frequency volatility measures and the assumption that...

The predictive power score

The predictive power score is a summary metric for predictive relations between data series. Like correlation, it is suitable for quick data exploration. Unlike...

Reward-risk timing

Reward-risk timing refers to methods for allocating between a risky market index and a risk-free asset. It is a combination of reward timing, based...

Machine learning and macro trading strategies

Machine learning can improve macro trading strategies, mainly because it makes them more flexible and adaptable, and generalizes knowledge better than fixed rules or...

The predictive superiority of ensemble methods for CDS spreads

Through 'R' and 'Python' one can apply a wide range of methods for predicting financial market variables. Key concepts include penalized regression, such as...

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Market dynamics: belief, risk, and ambiguity effects

To understand financial market dynamics, it is helpful to distinguish beliefs, attitudes towards risk, and attitudes towards ambiguity. Beliefs are subjective evaluations of future...

Building a real-time market distress index

A new Fed paper explains how to construct a real-time distress index, using the case of the corporate bond market. The index is based...

The financial stability interest rate

The financial stability interest rate is a threshold above which the real interest rate in an economy triggers financial constraints and systemic instability. It...

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