Classifying market states

Typically, we cannot predict a meaningful portion of daily or higher-frequency market returns. A more realistic approach is classifying the state of the market...

What traders should know about seasonal adjustment

The purpose of seasonal adjustment is to remove seasonal and calendar effects from economic time series. It is a common procedure but also a...

Inflation and precious metal prices

Theory and plausibility suggest that precious metal prices benefit from inflation and negative real interest rates. This makes gold, silver, platinum, and palladium natural...

Real-time growth estimation with reinforcement learning

Survey data and asset prices can be combined to estimate high-frequency growth expectations. This is a specific form of nowcasting that implicitly captures all...

Estimating the positioning of trend followers

There is a simple method of approximating trend follower positioning in real-time and without lag. It is based on normalized returns in liquid futures...

Forecasting energy markets with macro data

Recent academic papers illustrate how macroeconomic data support predictions of energy market flows and prices. Valid macro indicators include shipping costs, industrial production measures,...

Fundamental trend following

Fundamental trend following uses moving averages of past fundamental data, such as valuation metrics or economic indicators, to predict future fundamentals, analogously to the...

Prospect theory value as investment factor

Prospect theory value as investment factor Prospect theory value is a valid investment factor, particularly in episodes of apparent market inefficiency. Prospect theory is a...

Understanding international capital flows and shocks

Macro trading factors for FX must foremostly consider (gross) external investment positions. That is because modern international capital flows are mainly about financing, i.e....

R tidyverse for macro trading research

The tidyverse is a collection of packages that facilitate data science with R. It is particularly powerful for macro trading research because it...

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Understanding the disposition effect

Investors have a tendency to sell assets that have earned them positive returns and are reluctant to let go of those that have brought...

Contagion and self-fulfilling dynamics

Contagion and self-fulfilling feedback loops are propagation mechanisms at the heart of systemic financial crises. Contagion refers to the deterioration of fundamentals through the...

Macro uncertainty as predictor of market volatility

Market volatility measures the size of variations of asset returns. Macroeconomic uncertainty measures the size of unpredictable disturbances in economic activity. Large moves in...

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