Joint predictability of FX and bond returns

When macroeconomic conditions change rational inattention and cognitive frictions plausibly prevent markets from adjusting expectations for futures interest rates immediately and fully. This is...

The predictive power score

The predictive power score is a summary metric for predictive relations between data series. Like correlation, it is suitable for quick data exploration. Unlike...

Equilibrium theory of Treasury yields

An equilibrium model for U.S. Treasury yields explains how macroeconomic trends and related expectations for future short-term interest rates shape the yield curve. Long-term...

Factor timing

Factors beyond aggregate market risk are sources of alternative risk premia. Factor timing addresses the question when to receive and when to pay such...

Macro trading and macroeconomic trend indicators

Macroeconomic trends are powerful asset return factors because they affect risk aversion and risk-neutral valuations of securities at the same time. The influence of...

A statistical learning workflow for macro trading strategies

Statistical learning for macro trading involves model training, model validation and learning method testing. A simple workflow determines form and parameters of trading...

The basics of low-risk strategies

Low-risk investment strategies prefer leveraged low-risk assets over high-risk assets. The measure of risk can be based on price statistics, such as volatility and...

How loss aversion increases market volatility and predicts returns

Loss aversion means that people are more sensitive to losses than to gains. This asymmetry is backed by ample experimental evidence. Loss aversion is...

Reward-risk timing

Reward-risk timing refers to methods for allocating between a risky market index and a risk-free asset. It is a combination of reward timing, based...

Lagged correlation between asset prices

Efficient market theory assumes that all market prices incorporate all information at the same time. Realistically, different market segments focus on different news flows,...

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Modern financial system risk for macro trading

Financial system risk is the main constraint and disruptor of macro trading strategies. There are four key areas of modern systemic risk. In...

External imbalances and FX returns

Hedge ratios of international investment positions have increased over past decades, spurred by regulation and expanding derivative markets. This has given rise to predictable...

Predicting volatility with heterogeneous autoregressive models

Heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility have become a popular standard in financial market research. They use high-frequency volatility measures and the assumption that...

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