The fundamental value trap

Fundamental value seems like a straightforward investment approach. One simply looks for assets that are “cheap” or “expensive” relative to their rationally expected risk-adjusted...

Equity values and credit spreads: the inflation effect

A theoretical paper shows that a downward shift in expected inflation increases equity valuations and credit default risk at the same time. The reason...

Modern backtesting with integrity

Machine learning offers powerful tools for backtesting trading strategies. However, its computational power and convenience can also be corrosive for financial investment due to...

Commodity carry

Across assets, carry is defined as return for unchanged prices and is calculated based on the difference between spot and futures prices (view post...

Understanding the correlation of equity and bond returns

The correlation of equity and high grade sovereign bond returns is a powerful driver of portfolio construction and the term premia of interest rates....

CDS term premia and exchange rates

The term structure of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) is indicative of country-specific financial shocks because rising country risk affects short-dated maturities more than...

Realistic volatility risk premia

The volatility risk premium compensates investors for taking volatility risk. Conceptually it is based on the difference between options-implied and expected realized volatility. In...

Variance term premia

Variance term premia are surcharges on traded volatility that compensate for bearing volatility risk in respect to underlying asset prices over different forward horizons....

Multiple risk-free interest rates

Financial markets produce more than one risk-free interest rate. This is because there are several separate market segments where structured trades replicate such a...

How lazy trading explains FX market puzzles

Not all market participants respond to changing conditions instantaneously, not even in the FX market. Private investors in particular can take a long while...

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Liquidity yields are convenience yields of financial securities that typically arise from high liquidity, suitability as collateral or preferred regulatory status. New research argues...

The fundamental value trap

Fundamental value seems like a straightforward investment approach. One simply looks for assets that are “cheap” or “expensive” relative to their rationally expected risk-adjusted...

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