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Macro uncertainty as predictor of market volatility

Market volatility measures the size of variations of asset returns. Macroeconomic uncertainty measures the size of unpredictable disturbances in economic activity. Large moves in...

Classifying market states

Typically, we cannot predict a meaningful portion of daily or higher-frequency market returns. A more realistic approach is classifying the state of the market...

What traders should know about seasonal adjustment

The purpose of seasonal adjustment is to remove seasonal and calendar effects from economic time series. It is a common procedure but also a...