Macro information waste and the quantamental solution
Financial markets are not macro information efficient. This means that investment decisions miss out on ample relevant macroeconomic data and facts. Information goes to...
Statistical arbitrage risk premium
Any asset can use a portfolio of similar assets to hedge against its factor exposure. The factor residual risk of the hedged position is...
Market dynamics: belief, risk, and ambiguity effects
To understand financial market dynamics, it is helpful to distinguish beliefs, attitudes towards risk, and attitudes towards ambiguity. Beliefs are subjective evaluations of future...
Building a real-time market distress index
A new Fed paper explains how to construct a real-time distress index, using the case of the corporate bond market. The index is based...
The financial stability interest rate
The financial stability interest rate is a threshold above which the real interest rate in an economy triggers financial constraints and systemic instability. It...
Understanding the disposition effect
Investors have a tendency to sell assets that have earned them positive returns and are reluctant to let go of those that have brought...
Contagion and self-fulfilling dynamics
Contagion and self-fulfilling feedback loops are propagation mechanisms at the heart of systemic financial crises. Contagion refers to the deterioration of fundamentals through the...
Macro uncertainty as predictor of market volatility
Market volatility measures the size of variations of asset returns. Macroeconomic uncertainty measures the size of unpredictable disturbances in economic activity. Large moves in...
Classifying market states
Typically, we cannot predict a meaningful portion of daily or higher-frequency market returns. A more realistic approach is classifying the state of the market...
What traders should know about seasonal adjustment
The purpose of seasonal adjustment is to remove seasonal and calendar effects from economic time series. It is a common procedure but also a...
RECENT ARTICLES
Macro information waste and the quantamental solution
Financial markets are not macro information efficient. This means that investment decisions miss out on ample relevant macroeconomic data and facts. Information goes to...
Statistical arbitrage risk premium
Any asset can use a portfolio of similar assets to hedge against its factor exposure. The factor residual risk of the hedged position is...
Market dynamics: belief, risk, and ambiguity effects
To understand financial market dynamics, it is helpful to distinguish beliefs, attitudes towards risk, and attitudes towards ambiguity. Beliefs are subjective evaluations of future...