Systemic Risk and Systematic Value

There is a simple method of approximating trend follower positioning in real-time and without lag. It is based on normalized returns in liquid futures...

Recent academic papers illustrate how macroeconomic data support predictions of energy market flows and prices. Valid macro indicators include shipping costs, industrial production measures,...

Fundamental trend following uses moving averages of past fundamental data, such as valuation metrics or economic indicators, to predict future fundamentals, analogously to the...

Prospect theory value as investment factor Prospect theory value is a valid investment factor, particularly in episodes of apparent market inefficiency. Prospect theory is a...

Macro trading factors for FX must foremostly consider (gross) external investment positions. That is because modern international capital flows are mainly about financing, i.e....

The tidyverse is a collection of packages that facilitate data science with R. It is particularly powerful for macro trading research because it...

Nowcasting macro-financial indicators requires combining low-frequency and high-frequency time series. Mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions explain a low-frequency variable based on high-frequency variables and...

Combinations of equity returns and yield-curve changes can be used to classify market-implied underlying macro news. The methodology is structural vector autoregression. Theoretical ‘restrictions’...

In financial markets, risk refers to the probability distribution of future returns. Uncertainty is a broader concept that encompasses ambiguity about the parameters of...

Nowcasting is a modern approach to monitoring economic conditions in real-time. It makes financial market trading more efficient because economic dynamics drive corporate profits,...