Classifying market states

Typically, we cannot predict a meaningful portion of daily or higher-frequency market returns. A more realistic approach is classifying the state of the market...

What traders should know about seasonal adjustment

The purpose of seasonal adjustment is to remove seasonal and calendar effects from economic time series. It is a common procedure but also a...

Real-time growth estimation with reinforcement learning

Survey data and asset prices can be combined to estimate high-frequency growth expectations. This is a specific form of nowcasting that implicitly captures all...

Fundamental trend following

Fundamental trend following uses moving averages of past fundamental data, such as valuation metrics or economic indicators, to predict future fundamentals, analogously to the...

Nowcasting with MIDAS regressions

Nowcasting macro-financial indicators requires combining low-frequency and high-frequency time series. Mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions explain a low-frequency variable based on high-frequency variables and...

Market-implied macro shocks

Combinations of equity returns and yield-curve changes can be used to classify market-implied underlying macro news. The methodology is structural vector autoregression. Theoretical ‘restrictions’...

Nowcasting for financial markets

Nowcasting is a modern approach to monitoring economic conditions in real-time. It makes financial market trading more efficient because economic dynamics drive corporate profits,...

Joint predictability of FX and bond returns

When macroeconomic conditions change rational inattention and cognitive frictions plausibly prevent markets from adjusting expectations for futures interest rates immediately and fully. This is...

Lagged correlation between asset prices

Efficient market theory assumes that all market prices incorporate all information at the same time. Realistically, different market segments focus on different news flows,...

Tracking investor expectations with ETF data

Retail investors' return expectations affect market momentum and risk premia. The rise of ETFs with varying and inverse leverage offers an opportunity to estimate...

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Diversified reward-risk parity

Risk parity is a portfolio construction technique that seeks to equalize risk contributions from the different components of the portfolio. Risk parity with respect...

A market-to-book formula for equity strategies

A new proxy formula for equity market-to-book ratios suggests that (the logarithm of) such a ratio is equal to the discounted expected value of...

Markets’ neglect of macro news

Empirical evidence suggests that investors pay less attention to macroeconomic news when market sentiment is positive. Market responses to economic data surprises have historically...

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