Market dynamics: belief, risk, and ambiguity effects

To understand financial market dynamics, it is helpful to distinguish beliefs, attitudes towards risk, and attitudes towards ambiguity. Beliefs are subjective evaluations of future...

The financial stability interest rate

The financial stability interest rate is a threshold above which the real interest rate in an economy triggers financial constraints and systemic instability. It...

Bayesian Risk Forecasting

Portfolio risk forecasting is subject to great parameter uncertainty, particularly for longer forward horizons. This simply reflects that large drawdowns are observed only rarely,...

Signaling systemic risk

Systemic financial crises arise when vulnerable financial systems meet adverse shocks. A systemic risk indicator tracks the vulnerability rather than the shocks (which are...

How to estimate risk in extreme market situations

Estimating portfolio risk in extreme situations means answering two questions: First, has the market entered an extreme state? Second, how are returns likely to...

Algorithmic strategies: managing the overfitting bias

The business of algorithmic trading strategies creates incentives for model overfitting and backtest embellishment: researchers must pass Sharpe ratio thresholds for their strategies to...

Drawdown control

Containment of drawdowns and optimization of performance ratios for multi-asset portfolios is critical for trading strategies. Alas, short data series or structural changes often...

Realistic volatility risk premia

The volatility risk premium compensates investors for taking volatility risk. Conceptually it is based on the difference between options-implied and expected realized volatility. In...

How systemic financial risk is measured

Public institutions have developed a wide range of methods to track systemic financial risk. What most of them have in common is reliance on...

Equity index futures returns: lessons of 2000-2018

The average annualized return of local-currency index futures for 25 international markets has been 6% with a standard deviation of just under 20%. All...

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The power of macro trends in rates markets

Broad macroeconomic trends, such as inflation, economic growth, and credit creation are critical factors of shifts in monetary policy. Above-target trends support monetary tightening....

Six ways to estimate realized volatility

Asset return volatility is typically calculated as (annualized) standard deviation of returns over a sequence of periods, usually daily from close to close. However,...

Duration volatility risk premia

Duration volatility risk premium means compensation for bearing return volatility risk of an interest rate swap (IRS) contract. It is the scaled difference between...

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