Bayesian Risk Forecasting
Portfolio risk forecasting is subject to great parameter uncertainty, particularly for longer forward horizons. This simply reflects that large drawdowns are observed only rarely,...
Signaling systemic risk
Systemic financial crises arise when vulnerable financial systems meet adverse shocks. A systemic risk indicator tracks the vulnerability rather than the shocks (which are...
How to estimate risk in extreme market situations
Estimating portfolio risk in extreme situations means answering two questions: First, has the market entered an extreme state? Second, how are returns likely to...
Algorithmic strategies: managing the overfitting bias
The business of algorithmic trading strategies creates incentives for model overfitting and backtest embellishment: researchers must pass Sharpe ratio thresholds for their strategies to...
Drawdown control
Containment of drawdowns and optimization of performance ratios for multi-asset portfolios is critical for trading strategies. Alas, short data series or structural changes often...
Realistic volatility risk premia
The volatility risk premium compensates investors for taking volatility risk. Conceptually it is based on the difference between options-implied and expected realized volatility. In...
How systemic financial risk is measured
Public institutions have developed a wide range of methods to track systemic financial risk. What most of them have in common is reliance on...
Equity index futures returns: lessons of 2000-2018
The average annualized return of local-currency index futures for 25 international markets has been 6% with a standard deviation of just under 20%. All...
The dangerous disregard for fat tails in quantitative finance
The statistical term ‘fat tails’ refers to probability distributions with relatively high probability of extreme outcomes. Fat tails also imply strong influence of extreme...
Understanding collateral runs
In normal financial runs lenders want their money back. In collateral runs borrowers want their collateral back. In today’s highly collateralized financial system the...
RECENT ARTICLES
Markets’ neglect of macro news
Empirical evidence suggests that investors pay less attention to macroeconomic news when market sentiment is positive. Market responses to economic data surprises have historically...
Factor momentum: a brief introduction
Standard equity factors are autocorrelated. Hence, it is not surprising that factor strategies have also displayed momentum: past returns have historically predicted future returns....
The macro forces behind equity-bond price correlation
Since the late 1990s, the negative price correlation of equity and high-grade bonds has reduced the volatility of balanced portfolios and boosted Sharpe ratios...