Understanding the disposition effect

Investors have a tendency to sell assets that have earned them positive returns and are reluctant to let go of those that have brought...

Macro uncertainty as predictor of market volatility

Market volatility measures the size of variations of asset returns. Macroeconomic uncertainty measures the size of unpredictable disturbances in economic activity. Large moves in...

Classifying market states

Typically, we cannot predict a meaningful portion of daily or higher-frequency market returns. A more realistic approach is classifying the state of the market...

What traders should know about seasonal adjustment

The purpose of seasonal adjustment is to remove seasonal and calendar effects from economic time series. It is a common procedure but also a...

Inflation and precious metal prices

Theory and plausibility suggest that precious metal prices benefit from inflation and negative real interest rates. This makes gold, silver, platinum, and palladium natural...

Real-time growth estimation with reinforcement learning

Survey data and asset prices can be combined to estimate high-frequency growth expectations. This is a specific form of nowcasting that implicitly captures all...

Estimating the positioning of trend followers

There is a simple method of approximating trend follower positioning in real-time and without lag. It is based on normalized returns in liquid futures...

Forecasting energy markets with macro data

Recent academic papers illustrate how macroeconomic data support predictions of energy market flows and prices. Valid macro indicators include shipping costs, industrial production measures,...

Fundamental trend following

Fundamental trend following uses moving averages of past fundamental data, such as valuation metrics or economic indicators, to predict future fundamentals, analogously to the...

Prospect theory value as investment factor

Prospect theory value as investment factor Prospect theory value is a valid investment factor, particularly in episodes of apparent market inefficiency. Prospect theory is a...

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Market dynamics: belief, risk, and ambiguity effects

To understand financial market dynamics, it is helpful to distinguish beliefs, attitudes towards risk, and attitudes towards ambiguity. Beliefs are subjective evaluations of future...

Building a real-time market distress index

A new Fed paper explains how to construct a real-time distress index, using the case of the corporate bond market. The index is based...

The financial stability interest rate

The financial stability interest rate is a threshold above which the real interest rate in an economy triggers financial constraints and systemic instability. It...

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